League Season Analysis - 2012/13

Apologies for the delay in starting this season's topic.

Last season's topic was here
http://www.lfcreds.com/reds/index.php/topic,40360.0.html


Many of you found this informative - as it analyses teams results based on the difficulty of opposition played (based on last seasons League Table)

Title target = 87 points (Utd did finish second on 89 pts last season - but normally 86 pts is the highest a 2nd place team has managed)
Top four target = 68 points (the highest a team has finished in 5th in recent years was on 67 points)

I have approximated the targets as follows.  The 'easiest' and 'hardest' are based on last years league position. Newly promoted clubs count as bottom 3.

Title Target (87 points)

Requirements:
Win your 15 easiest games at home. Draw your hardest 4 (City, United, Arsenal, Spurs).
Win your 11 easiest game away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Spurs, Newcastle, Chelsea, Everton, Fulham). Defeated at your hardest 3 (City, Utd, Arsenal)

P38 W26 D9 L3 Pts 87

Top Four Target (68 points)

Requirements:
Win your 11 easiest games at home. Draw your next hardest 6 (Arsenal, Spurs, Newcastle, Chelsea, Everton, Fulham). Defeated by hardest 2 teams (City, Utd)
Win your 8 easiest games away. Draw your next hardest 5 (Everton, Fulham, West Brom, Swansea, Norwich). Defeated at the hardest 6. (City, Utd, Arsenal, Spurs, Newcastle, Chelsea)

P38 W19 D11 L8 Pts 68

Before I post how the other teams are doing let's look at Liverpool's results.

Aiming for the title

West Brom (A) Lost (Should win) -3
Man City (H) Draw (Should draw) 0
Arsenal (H) Lost (Should draw) -1
Sunderland (A) Draw (Should win) -2
Man Utd (H) Lost (Should draw) -1
Norwich (A) Won (Should win) 0
Stoke (H) Draw (Should win) -2
Reading (H) Won (Should win) 0
Everton (A) Draw (Should draw) 0
Newcastle (H) Draw (Should draw) 0
Chelsea (A) Draw (Should draw) 0

Good results 0
Expected results 6
Poor results (draw when should win, or lost when should draw) 4
Very bad results (lost when should win) 1

Overall total -9 pts off title form

Aiming for the top four

West Brom (A) Lost (Should draw) -1
Man City (H) Draw (Should lose) +1
Arsenal (H) Lost (Should draw) -1
Sunderland (A) Draw (Should win) -2
Man Utd (H) Lost (Should lose) 0
Norwich (A) Won (Should draw) +2
Stoke (H) Draw (Should win) -2
Reading (H) Won (Should win) 0
Everton (A) Draw (Should draw) 0
Newcastle (H) Draw (Should draw) 0
Chelsea (A) Draw (Should lose) +1

Good results 3
Expected results 4
Poor results 4
Very bad results 0

Overall total -2 pts off 4th placed form

Analysis

As can be seen - the reds have had an exceptionally difficult start.  On title form we only predict 9 draws in the season.  In our opening 11 games we have played 6 of these games already.

For both categories, Liverpool suffered most at the start of the season - recent results have been more in line with expectations.





I will add the points from the other teams shortly.

Thank you JD, I've missed this thread.  Gives us a more analytical view of how we are doing.

For the record I've just looked at last season at this stage.

We were -6pts off title form and level with top four form.

Which shows just how much more difficult our start has been this time. (Not that I'm here to defend the manager of course!)

So, a Skrtel back pass or Suarez goal v Everton away from 4th place form.

For the record I've just looked at last season at this stage.

We were -6pts off title form and level with top four form.

Which shows just how much more difficult our start has been this time. (Not that I'm here to defend the manager of course!)

I checked some of those stats over the weekend JD.  This time last year we had only played 3 of the 7 teams that finished above us compared to this seasons 6 out of 7.

Very very good thread - great work and very insightful

Thank you for posting this - will certainly follow this thread with a keen eye

Going by your figures despite our very tough start we are only 2 points away from CL qualification results - that's positive.

Here we go - a select group of teams - and this is going to be interesting.

Chasing the title



Man Utd +5
Man City 0
Chelsea -2
Spurs -8
Arsenal -9
Everton -9
Liverpool -9

Chasing the top four



Man Utd +12
Chelsea +6
Man City +3
Everton 0
Liverpool -2
Arsenal -3
Spurs -5


Whilst these make Liverpool's results so far not appear so bad - it now proves that Liverpool are coming up to what should be an easier part of the season.

Liverpool now have 6 of the next 9 games that they are expected to win - the exceptions being Spurs (A) predicted defeat, Swansea (A) predicted draw, Fulham (H) predicted draw.

So to get back to 0 - back on target for the top four by the New Year, we need 22 points from the next 9 games - or 7 wins and a draw.  Good luck with that!

Thanks JD. I believe that we won't get top 4, but that results haven't been as bad as they appear on paper.

I was talking to my old man at the weekend and he's a lifelong Spurs fan (ex season ticket holder, ex cockney etc etc) and he told me Spurs have played ALL of the bottom six. Now even allowing for the fact he hates AVB and that he occasionally talks bollocks, it certainly got me thinking about our situation.
Now my read is that first three will pull well clear, but the rest will finish in an absolute scrum as they are all much of a muchness. Within that tho, we have Suarez who I am convinced is the best player in the league. As such, we have a chance if we can get going.

Very very good thread - great work and very insightful

J.D.'s work on this each year ... always commands maximum respect.

since august the 18th we have conceeded 28 goals in all competitions. I think the style we play looks great when going forward but it does not work for me defensivly sorry . If we can start getting a few clean sheets together then i cant see why we cant finish top 6 ,But at the minute i cant see to many clean sheets coming just yet!

I was talking to my old man at the weekend and he's a lifelong Spurs fan (ex season ticket holder, ex cockney etc etc) and he told me Spurs have played ALL of the bottom six. Now even allowing for the fact he hates AVB and that he occasionally talks bollocks, it certainly got me thinking about our situation.
Now my read is that first three will pull well clear, but the rest will finish in an absolute scrum as they are all much of a muchness. Within that tho, we have Suarez who I am convinced is the best player in the league. As such, we have a chance if we can get going.

With you on that one Mick, Suarez by a country mile.
As such tho we are dependant on one world class striker and injuries are not to be considered - but what if the unthinkable were to happen?
The treatment Luis gets and the way it is totally ignored by officials makes it more likely than not he is going to get injured.
sh*t creek and paddles comes to mind

since august the 18th we have conceeded 28 goals in all competitions. I think the style we play looks great when going forward but it does not work for me defensivly sorry . If we can start getting a few clean sheets together then i cant see why we cant finish top 6 ,But at the minute i cant see to many clean sheets coming just yet!

6 goals conceded in the last 6 league games - the defence is getting stronger and will do even more when Lucas is back and Pepe.

6 goals conceded in the last 6 league games - the defence is getting stronger and will do even more when Lucas is back and Pepe.

Ok 6 goals conceeded in the last 6 prem games of which three of those teams were Norwich ,Reading ,Stoke, who havnt hit double figures in goals scored yet ,

Well neither Stoke or Reading scored against us. Either way you want to look at we are improving and if you look at JD's stats we are far from being out of it and the only way is forward.

stats we are far from being out of it and the only way is forward.

I think you need to change that to the only way is UP

Very good analysis. It does all come back to us winning games though.

Well well.

Looks like we started this topic just at the right time!

Updated 17th November 2012 (As it stands)

Liverpool don't improve points-wise (it was an expected win) but some of the teams we aim to challenge have suffered.

Aiming for the title

United should have beaten Norwich (A) - Lost -3
Liverpool should have beaten Wigan (H) - Won 0
Arsenal should have drawn Spurs (H) - Won +2
Spurs should have lost at Arsenal (A) - Lost 0
Everton should have beaten Reading (A) - Lost -3
Chelsea should have beaten West Brom (A) - Lost -3
Man City should have beaten Aston Villa (H) - Won 0

Aiming for top four

United should have drawn Norwich (A) - Lost -1
Liverpool should have beaten Wigan (H) - Won 0
Arsenal should have drawn Spurs (H) - Won +2
Spurs should have lost at Arsenal (A) - Lost 0
Everton should have beaten Reading (A) - Lost -3
Chelsea should have drawn West Brom (A) - Lost -1
Man City should have beaten Aston Villa (H) - Won 0

Updated Tables

Performance challenging for the title

Man Utd +2
Man City 0
Chelsea -5
Arsenal -7
Spurs -8
Liverpool -9
Everton -12



Performance challenging for the top four

Man Utd +11
Chelsea +5
Man City +3
Arsenal -1
Liverpool -2
Everton -3
Spurs -5

So based on JD's excellent analysis, much appreciated, we're only 2 points off 4th pace. You can get 5/1 on Liverpool finishing in the top 4, while I think we may finish short of it this year I wouldn't put anyone off having a little flutter on that. Does seem good value if you think we're going to go on a decent run you could easily lay it off after Christmas.

Especially considering the teams that are ahead of us are also only performing on par or just below what you'd expect.

Absolutely love this thread. Thanks again JD!

Only just been highlighted about this thread ( Cheers Rodders)

Excellent reading JD... I love this kind of stuff.

Based on the opening 12 results - these are our predicted final point ranges for the teams as of 20th November.  (Be interesting to compare at the end of the season!)

Man Utd 93-102
Man City 78-87
Chelsea 71-84
Arsenal 65
Liverpool 58-62
Spurs 52-62
Everton 49-59

Great thread.

I defo think we are about to start a run of picking up a lot of points, all our games between now & new year are very winnable, esp. if suarez keeps playing the way he is, and with the defence getting stronger every game, and lucas coming back.

Oh yea and u-21.s\ressies winning their league with 3 games to go.

Which means the young lads are all buzzing and pushing the 1st team hard!

All looking very rosy ATM.