The Top 4. Can we get there?

We need to beat Arsenal to pull them back into the fight for 4th - and we can.

Forget all the hype about their recent run, they're still the same old mentally weak Wenger team. Get in their F***ing faces with physicality, bully them and let them know from the first minute we're taking the three points and we'll scrap like dogs if we have to. Arsenal will wilt when a team goes for their throat.

Lucas needs to be in for Allen. Henderson needs to redeem himself after a poor performance for a guy with the captain's armband. Moreno must be dropped, even for Glenn Johnson. Sterling up front with Sturridge and Coutinho.

Typical.

What do you suggest, bring in Martinez?

Talk about trying to provoke somebody...

Missing out on CL next season will set us back. We won't attract the players we need to become a regular top 4 side for the next few seasons. We certainly won't attract the caliber of player to replace Stevie and improve our strike force.

If we don't make top 4 and are back in the shitty EL again I would rather we exit that sh*t competition as early as possible and concentrate solely on a domestic campaign to get back where we need to be.

We were in the Champions League this season and the best players we could attract were Moreno, Lovren, Lallana, Balotelli etc. What makes you think we would go in for better players or be able to attract better players this time around IF we did get 4th? We would still spend big money on players whose talent don't match their price tags.

Based upon yesterday and being a fickle football fan it doesn't look good, if we play like that we might struggle for the Europa...

Arsenal   Away    0-2 - Does BR really have it within him to conjure up an away win here? doubt it
Newcastle   Home   2-1
Hull            Away   3-2
West Brom   Away   0-1  Its Pulis so if they score first forget about it
QPR   Home           4-0
Chelsea   Away           1-2  Again we don't win big away games it seems 
Palace   Home   2-0
Stoke   Away           2-1

We could miss out by a couple of points...

Talk about trying to provoke somebody...

Oh, so you know about that as well?

Then you'd know, heeding the advice of someone who popsicals would quickly rush to defend, if ever there was an innuendo made against our manager, which culminated in our first defeat in the league this year, is thought 'provoking' indeed.

It was going to be a big ask given where we were prior to Chistmas. It obviously got a lot tougher with yesterdays' defeat and a trip to Arsenal in the next game isn't exactly the game you would hope to play immediately after but it's still on. Plenty of points to play for and the mancs have some big fixtures ahead of them as well so I wouldn't give up hope just yet. A win at Arsenal would pull them right back into it and as for the game at the chavs, there is a pretty good chance they could already be champions by then so lets see how it goes.

Gutting to lose yesterday the way we did and no doubt you've all taken some grief yesterday (not that my phone was on all day) and today from various manc wa**s BUT it's been a hell of a turnaround considering where we were so its important not to lose sight of that.

Oh, so you know about that as well?

Then you'd know, heeding the advice of someone who popsicals would quickly rush to defend, if ever there was an innuendo made against our manager, which culminated in our first defeat in the league this year, is thought 'provoking' indeed.

Not sure what Martinez has to do with anything.

Not sure what Martinez has to do with anything.

It's just a sad little man's attempt to be a WUM. He's been ignored for over a year and still continues to quote me like some attention starved child, it's pathetic.

On to the point though about Brendan's record against the top 4 teams, it is alarming:

Played: 22
Won: 5
Drawn: 6
Lost: 11
Points per game of less than 1

In life we're all judged against our peers and so far we've failed miserably against the top teams under Brendan. If we brought the cups into it also we've never actually beaten any of the top 4 teams in any competition, losing out to Arsenal, United and Chelsea. For anyone that tries to convince with the argument that they're simply bigger teams etc, take a look at our record against the same 4 teams the year before Brendan came in, pretty damning to be fair.

Effectively 6 points behind United now due to goal difference.

Can't see us doing 6 points better than them over 8 games.  Arsenal, Chelsea away look nightmares and Palace doesn't look simple.  We've been on a good run of results but our form over the past few weeks hasn't been as solid.

For some reason when we aren't playing twice a week, when we have time to plan for the next game it's not looked as good.  Strange that.

It's just a sad little man's attempt to be a WUM. He's been ignored for over a year and still continues to quote me like some attention starved child, it's pathetic.

On to the point though about Brendan's record against the top 4 teams, it is alarming:

Played: 22
Won: 5
Drawn: 6
Lost: 11
Points per game of less than 1

No doubt we need to change that very poor record at Arsenal, Luke,

Yup we will and by two points.

No doubt we need to change that very poor record at Arsenal, Luke,

I thought top 4 was gone a long time ago, but our incredible run had me beginning to hope a little. Now I feel it's almost back to no hope again, without 3 points against Arsenal I think it's completely over.

It's just a sad little man's attempt to be a WUM. He's been ignored for over a year and still continues to quote me like some attention starved child, it's pathetic.

On to the point though about Brendan's record against the top 4 teams, it is alarming:

Played: 22
Won: 5
Drawn: 6
Lost: 11
Points per game of less than 1

In life we're all judged against our peers and so far we've failed miserably against the top teams under Brendan. If we brought the cups into it also we've never actually beaten any of the top 4 teams in any competition, losing out to Arsenal, United and Chelsea. For anyone that tries to convince with the argument that they're simply bigger teams etc, take a look at our record against the same 4 teams the year before Brendan came in, pretty damning to be fair.

Having a bad record against the top 4 teams doesn't matter a huge deal by season's end. It's losses to Villa, West Ham, Newcastle and Palace, and draws with Everton, Hull, Sunderland and Leicester that have more of an impact on points total and position.

Consider this: You play 19 teams twice. For the sake of the argument, let's say you lose both fixtures against the top 4 teams. If you beat every single one of the remaining 15 teams twice, you end up with 90 points.

So for me, it's the less than 3 points against the teams below you that always cripple you.

I thought top 4 was gone a long time ago, but our incredible run had me beginning to hope a little. Now I feel it's almost back to no hope again, without 3 points against Arsenal I think it's completely over.

I always felt we had a chance because Utd were stuttering along for months and Arsenal are never great despite always sticking in there like a bad smell. But I never imagined we'd lose such a vital game at home when could have had top 4 in our own hands with 8 games to go.

A victory at Arsenal is vital to prove we can do it. Just like Utd did to us yesterday. Now it's our turn to step up.

Our record at the Emirates has been terrible so about time we changed that.

To break into the top 4 now is a big ask and lets be honest we have not played well this last month, I had a dream on Sat that we lost 2-1 and we ended doing just that, what it does is if we fail to make it into the top four this season it may be years before we get another chance that's how important the man u game was, we need to develop the art of goal scoring otherwise the next nine games could end up like the first nine, can BR get us back on track he has 9 games left in which to turn it around we have no room for any slip ups including the Arsenal game then we must hope that everyone above us lose at least 3 games in the run-in it's a tall order given that all season our Achilles-Heal is in scoring goals...... P.S. Their manager made Brendan look like a novice.

Our record at the Emirates has been terrible so about time we changed that.

Yep time to make it 7 Clean sheets in a row away from home, with us grabbing a couple of goals.

Having a bad record against the top 4 teams doesn't matter a huge deal by season's end. It's losses to Villa, West Ham, Newcastle and Palace, and draws with Everton, Hull, Sunderland and Leicester that have more of an impact on points total and position.

Consider this: You play 19 teams twice. For the sake of the argument, let's say you lose both fixtures against the top 4 teams. If you beat every single one of the remaining 15 teams twice, you end up with 90 points.

So for me, it's the less than 3 points against the teams below you that always cripple you.

Exactly.

Anyway, it's just typical, a way to get the rabble roused re Rodgers. When things turn south for us, a few posters will come on and plant a few comments sit back and watch the fireworks.

It's not over yet lads plenty of twists still to come in this tale.

Having a bad record against the top 4 teams doesn't matter a huge deal by season's end. It's losses to Villa, West Ham, Newcastle and Palace, and draws with Everton, Hull, Sunderland and Leicester that have more of an impact on points total and position.

It does, of course, vary from season to season Mozzie.

This season, as outlined by you, above, the home draws, in particular, might have more than an impact on end position than losses to teams currently in the top 4. That said: our draws tally sits favourably in relation to those above us so I'm not sure (exactly) how important they are. (I'll check later)

However, as it stands: the losses to teams outside the top 4 - Villa, West Ham, Newcastle and Palace are no more or less relevant than losses to teams inside the top 4 - Man City, Man Utd (twice) and Chelsea.

Right now; points dropped in draws = 12; points dropped in losses, to teams currently top 4 = 12 and... points dropped, in losses, to teams outside top 4 = 12.

We have to play only two teams above us and six below. Come the time; it might be interesting to see which cost us more in relation to teams which finish above us. 

It does, of course, vary from season to season Mozzie.

This season, as outlined by you, above, the home draws, in particular, might have more than an impact on end position than losses to teams currently in the top 4. That said: our draws tally sits favourably in relation to those above us so I'm not sure (exactly) how important they are. (I'll check later)

However, as it stands: the losses to teams outside the top 4 - Villa, West Ham, Newcastle and Palace are no more or less relevant than losses to teams inside the top 4 - Man City, Man Utd (twice) and Chelsea.

Right now; points dropped in draws = 12; points dropped in losses, to teams currently top 4 = 12 and... points dropped, in losses, to teams outside top 4 = 12.

We have to play only two teams above us and six below. Come the time; it might be interesting to see which cost us more in relation to teams which finish above us. 

I was giving a general look at 38 game scenario, not so much a look at the current table or current top 4. I'll always just assume season-to-season Chelsea, City and Arsenal are in the 4 with one wild card team.

But even if you want to look at the current table, the 12-12-12 points dropped as you point out, if we had 24 of those (the draws and losses to teams below us, but still losing to City, Chelsea, United x2), we'd be at the top of the table.

I was giving a general look at 38 game scenario, not so much a look at the current table or current top 4.

Oh, I see. No problem. We can check back later on.

But even if you want to look at the current table, the 12-12-12 points dropped as you point out, if we had 24 of those (the draws and losses to teams below us, but still losing to City, Chelsea, United x2), we'd be at the top of the table.

And... if we had 24 of those (the draws and losses to teams above us, but still losing to Villa, West Ham, Newcastle and Palace) we'd also be top of the table. 

Which, getting back to the point: means that [at this moment in time] losing to Villa, West Ham, Newcastle and Palace don't "have more of an impact on points total and position".

Time will tell though. 

Oh, I see. No problem. We can check back later on.
And... if we had 24 of those (the draws and losses to teams above us, but still losing to Villa, West Ham, Newcastle and Palace) we'd also be top of the table. 

Which, getting back to the point: means that [at this moment in time] losing to Villa, West Ham, Newcastle and Palace don't "have more of an impact on points total and position".

Time will tell though. 

This was my hypothesis:

it's the less than 3 points against the teams below you that always cripple you.

Which means you can afford to never beat a top 4 team as long as you take care of the teams you're supposed to be beating. Assuming we have the 5th-best squad in the league, a club like Liverpool is the favorite when facing 15 teams below it. So if you take care of your business in those 15x2, you win the league.

If we had taken care of our business against the teams we're expected to beat (Villa, West Ham, Palace, etc.), we'd be in first.

But because we didn't take care of our business in matches we should have, it adds unnecessary extra pressure and makes matches against Chelsea and City et al seem bigger than they really are. But they're not. They're just fixtures. It's still 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw.

Which means you can afford to never beat a top 4 team as long as you take care of the teams you're supposed to be beating. Assuming we have the 5th-best squad in the league, a club like Liverpool is the favorite when facing 15 teams below it. So if you take care of your business in those 15x2, you win the league.

And... if we apply that same logic even handedly - assuming the team in 4th have the 4th best squad... that club is favourite, when facing 16 teams below it. Take care of their business in those 16 x 2 and they finish with 96 points - 6 points clear of the team in 5th.

If we had taken care of our business against the teams we're expected to beat (Villa, West Ham, Palace, etc.), we'd be in first.

And if we had taken care of our business against teams we want to dislodge, we'd also be in first but by even further.

Listen; come 38 games, time will tell, how important beating those above you really is but I will tell you that there's an old adage in football that "you need to beat the teams around you". It's often used when talking about relegation battles but it tends to hold true at the top too.

On Sunday we failed to beat the Mancs - instead of going one point ahead, we fell 5 points behind. Next game up we can either close the gap on Arsenal to four or watch it grow to ten. By very definition both games were/are "a six pointer"... six pointers don't come into play with teams like Villa, West Ham, Villa and Palace... therein lies the difference mate.