11 games to go - how many points needed?

We need to finish above or as close to Arsenal as possible. How many we need defends upon how many they get.

33 Points and we'll discuss anything else later.

Spot on Daz, I was going to same exactly the same.

If we beat United I reckon 26. If we don't I reckon we might need about 29.

Could be a record pts total for 4th this year.

It's crazy because a couple of months ago it was looking like a record low points table might have got 4th but everybody (until very recently) has been picking up points at the top end of the table. It's a real testament to the manager and our lads that we have been able to slowly but surely claw back into the race.

Do you also have Wednesday night's lottery numbers?

Mate this thread is discussing what is needed on the balance of probability. He is entirely right to say that 33 points could not win the title, because on the balance of probability Chelsea won't drop enough points even if we get the full points.

As for 76, its probably the highest amount we'd need to assured of top 4, but its not unreasonable.

Let's aim for 36 and see where that leaves us at the end of May.

Absolutely! 33 points if we win out and we'll get the 3 extra points because Brendan has nice teeth

Mate this thread is discussing what is needed on the balance of probability. He is entirely right to say that 33 points could not win the title, because on the balance of probability Chelsea won't drop enough points even if we get the full points.

As for 76, its probably the highest amount we'd need to assured of top 4, but its not unreasonable.

That's not what the sarcasm was aimed at. He's being rather presumptuous in saying City and Chelsea will drop a certain number of points. Not 'will drop points' but 'will drop xxx points' which is an utterly ludicrous thing to be saying. By all means suggest the teams above us will drop points, but start suggesting that you know the precise number and it moves in to the realm of fortune telling.

Too many people in this thread are trying to be too clever for their own good. We need one more point than 5th place to finish in the top four, or a better goal difference. It's that simple. 33 points from the next eleven games is the only guarantee of finishing in the top four and only because one of those eleven games is against United in 4th place.

Absolutely! 33 points if we win out and we'll get the 3 extra points because Brendan has nice teeth

Haha!  I should have edited my post earlier in line with the thread title mate (it was 12 games to go) but I like your idea better.

That's not what the sarcasm was aimed at. He's being rather presumptuous in saying City and Chelsea will drop a certain number of points. Not 'will drop points' but 'will drop xxx points' which is an utterly ludicrous thing to be saying. By all means suggest the teams above us will drop points, but start suggesting that you know the precise number and it moves in to the realm of fortune telling.

  Dude, duh! I never said City/Chelsea will drop xxx points. In fact, the post above mine did when that bloke said we'll get the title if we get to 81 and 2nd if we get to 76. So THAT is fortune telling and not mine

Read mine and it'll clearly say City/Chelsea "will not drop" so many points and can easily go past 81/76 with the number of games in hand

#pointlesssarcasm

Dude, duh! I never said City/Chelsea will drop xxx points. In fact, the post above mine did when that bloke said we'll get the title if we get to 81 and 2nd if we get to 76. So THAT is fortune telling and not mine

Read mine and it'll clearly say City/Chelsea "will not drop" so many points and can easily go past 81/76 with the number of games in hand

#pointlesssarcasm

Don't tell me you didn't say something when it's in black and white.

Thats deluded really. City will get 21 points from 11 games and Chelsea will easily do the same in 12. Heck, they'll do much more.

28 points (9W, 1D, 1L) puts us on 76 which is what we might need to get to 4th.

21 points from 11 games is a 12 point drop, or four games. As clear as day you're putting an exact number on the amount of points they'll drop. I don't want to argue with you but don't take me for a F***ing fool, I wasn't born yesterday.

We are now 11 league games without defeat and have 8 wins from them. If we can replicate that or even better it then it will stand us in good stead for 3rd.

He's being rather presumptuous in saying City and Chelsea will drop a certain number of points.

Chelsea will drop three when they play us.

I think 75 points is enough (which is ridiculously high for a top 4 spot) which means 27 points.

Could be less if we get 4 points from United and Arsenal which i think we will. We will beat ManU and should get something from the Arsenal game.

EDIT: Just realised the ManU game is on my birthday again. That fixture is always in the third week of March.

Liverpool v Burnley    Wed 4 Mar    20:00   
Swansea v Liverpool    Mon 16 Mar    20:00   
Liverpool v Man Utd    Sun 22 Mar    13:30   
Arsenal v Liverpool    Sat 4 Apr    12:45   
Liverpool v Newcastle    Mon 13 Apr    20:00   
Hull v Liverpool    Sat 18 Apr    15:00   
West Brom v Liverpool    Sat 25 Apr    15:00   
Liverpool v QPR    Sat 2 May    15:00   
Chelsea v Liverpool    Sat 9 May    15:00   
Liverpool v Crystal Palace    Sat 16 May    15:00   
Stoke v Liverpool    Sun 24 May    15:00

Some winnable games there. Looks like the 3 big games could decide it for us. I expect to win all bar the Arsenal and Chelsea games. At least 27 points, plus hopefully a couple of draws. Undefeated and 3rd place I think.

How many goals are needed? Hope that it doesn't come down to goal difference.

How many goals are needed? Hope that it doesn't come down to goal difference.

We're 9 goals behind Southampton, 10 behind Utd, and 12 behind Arsenal. A 5-0 win over Utd will even us up with them

Easy.... 33 

I think 75 points is enough (which is ridiculously high for a top 4 spot) which means 27 points.

Could be less if we get 4 points from United and Arsenal which i think we will. We will beat ManU and should get something from the Arsenal game.

EDIT: Just realised the ManU game is on my birthday again. That fixture is always in the third week of March.

Again, this is mathematically impossible that the 4th team finishes on 75 points. I give youse example:

Chelsea win all their reminding games.
City win all their reminding games.
Arsenal win all their reminding games except for game vs Chelsea.
United win all their reminding games except for games vs Chelsea, City and Arsenal.

Top four final table:
Chelsea 60+36 96
City 55+33 88
Arsenal 51+30 81
United 50+24 74

This is scenario where 74 points is needed for 4th place. But thats as likely scenario as I hit the jackpot tomorrow.

Given our quallity and form just beating City, we are not going to lose all three remaining games vs teams above us.
Given quallity and aspirations of Spurs and Saints, they are not going to lose all remaining games against teams above them.
Given nature of PL, these current top 4 teams, esp. Arsenal and United, will not win all their remaining games against bottom half.

Many twists and turns yet, but what Im saying is, its just not possible that the 4th team finishes on 74 points or higher. 72 tops

Again, this is mathematically impossible that the 4th team finishes on 75 points. I give youse example:

Chelsea win all their reminding games.
City win all their reminding games.
Arsenal win all their reminding games except for game vs Chelsea.
United win all their reminding games except for games vs Chelsea, City and Arsenal.

Top four final table:
Chelsea 60+36 96
City 55+33 88
Arsenal 51+30 81
United 50+24 74

This is scenario where 74 points is needed for 4th place. But thats as likely scenario as I hit the jackpot tomorrow.

You are right that it is extremely improbable that 4th requires more than 74, but you are wrong it is mathematically impossible. For example, say that United beat Arsenal in your scenario. Then Arsenal get 78 points and United 77. Or say the same but both beat Chelsea. Then it is;
 C 90
MC 88
A 81
United 80

All incredibly unlikely, but you aren't right that it is impossible.

Again, this is mathematically impossible that the 4th team finishes on 75 points. I give youse example:

Chelsea win all their reminding games.
City win all their reminding games.
Arsenal win all their reminding games except for game vs Chelsea.
United win all their reminding games except for games vs Chelsea, City and Arsenal.

Top four final table:
Chelsea 60+36 96
City 55+33 88
Arsenal 51+30 81
United 50+24 74

This is scenario where 74 points is needed for 4th place. But thats as likely scenario as I hit the jackpot tomorrow.

Given our quallity and form just beating City, we are not going to lose all three remaining games vs teams above us.
Given quallity and aspirations of Spurs and Saints, they are not going to lose all remaining games against teams above them.
Given nature of PL, these current top 4 teams, esp. Arsenal and United, will not win all their remaining games against bottom half.

Many twists and turns yet, but what Im saying is, its just not possible that the 4th team finishes on 74 points or higher. 72 tops

Meh. Still want 27 points

EDIT: Hang on. It's not "mathematically impossible" it's "improbable".

EDIT again: What Thaddeus said.

The anticipation (not as bad as last season mind) F***ing kills me.

F***ing gettin' out of here 

How many points needed ? One more than the team in 5th.

Don't tell me you didn't say something when it's in black and white.

21 points from 11 games is a 12 point drop, or four games. As clear as day you're putting an exact number on the amount of points they'll drop. I don't want to argue with you but don't take me for a f**king fool, I wasn't born yesterday.

OK! Now I get why is it hard for your brain to understand whats being told. What I realy meant was "City will EASILY get 21 points from 11 games" which means even if we get 81, City/Chelsea will still beat us EASILY with the #games in hand.

AGAIN, I DIDNT SAY THEY WILL GET 21 POINTS FROM 11. I MEANT, THEY WILL EASILY GET 21 POINTS FROM 11. GOT IT??!! It would've been all smoother had you also read the last few words of that line. "Heck, they'll do much more". But hey, language buddy! Chill..

Despite Southampton winning last night, it remains a three horse race for me.

Uniteds fixtures:

Newcastle (a)
Spurs (h)
LFC (a)
Villa (h)
City (h)
Chelsea (a)
Everton (a)
WBA (h)
Palace (a)
Arsenal (h)
Hull (a)

So in their next six games they face Tottenham, us, City and Chelsea.  I know Everton have been dog sh*t this season but Goodison can be a tough place to go too. They also have to play Arsenal in the penultimate game of the season.  I see them getting no more than 23 points which would leave them on 73.


Arsenals fixtures are:

QPR (a)
West Ham (h)
Newcastle (a)
Liverpool (h)
Burnely (a)
Sunderland (h)
Chelsea (h)
Hull (a)
Swansea (h)
Utd (a)
WBA (h)

A nice run in overall. Three difficult fixtures standing out having to play us, Chelsea and united but they are at home for two of those. I think they are capable of getting 24 points giving them a total of 75.

Our fixtures are:

Burnley (h)
Swansea (a)
UTD (h)
Arsenal (a)
Newcastle (h)
Hull (a)
WBA (a)
QPR (h)
Chelsea (a)
Palace (h)
Stoke (a)

I think we will get around 25 points which also puts us on 73.

So in summary, Arsenal are in the best position and have the easier run in. I'm pretty sure they will finish inside the top 4.

The mancs have a difficult run in and I was being kind giving them 23 points. They probably won't get that many. Providing we beat them, we will be in a very good position.

I think it will be us and Arsenal.