If 78 points is the benchmark to make top 4, then we will need another 29 points from the next 13 games. The combo results of the remaining games could turned to be as follows :-
W 13 D 0 L 0 : 39 pts Total : 88 pts
W 12 D 1 L 0 : 37 pts Total : 86 pts
W 12 D 0 L 1 : 36 pts Total : 85 pts
W 11 D 2 L 0 : 35 pts Total : 84 pts
W 11 D 1 L 1 : 34 pts Total : 83 pts
W 11 D 0 L 2 : 33 pts Total : 82 pts
W 10 D 3 L 0 : 33 pts Total : 82 Pts
W 10 D 2 L 1 : 32 pts Total : 81 pts
W 10 D 1 L 2 : 31 pts Total : 80 pts
W 10 D 0 L 3 : 30 pts Total : 79 pts
W 9 D 4 L 0 : 31 pts Total : 80 pts
W 9 D 3 L 1 : 30 pts Total : 79 pts
W 9 D 2 L 2 : 29 pts Total : 78 pts *****
W 9 D 1 L 3 : 28 pts Total : 77 pts
W 9 D 0 L 4 : 27 pts Total : 76 pts
W 8 D 5 L 0 : 29 pts Total : 78 pts *****
W 8 D 4 L 1 : 28 pts Total : 77 pts
W 8 D 3 L 2 : 27 pts Total : 76 pts
W 8 D 2 L 3 : 26 pts Total : 75 pts
W 8 D 1 L 4 : 25 pts Total : 74 pts
W 8 D 2 L 3 : 26 pts Total : 75 pts
??
W 8 D 1 L 4 : 25 pts Total : 74 pts
W 8 D 0 L 5 : 24 pts Total : 73 pts
This is how the top 4 made it in :-
2015/16
1 Leicester City (C) 81 pts
2 Arsenal 71 pts
3 Tottenham Hotspur 70 pts
4 Manchester City 66 pts
2014/15
1 Chelsea (C) 87 pts
2 Manchester City 79 pts
3 Arsenal 75 pts
4 Manchester United 70 pts
I'd take the 2014/15 season as a gauge of how many points we will need. 70 pts would be a bare minimum needed while 78 points would give us a "very good chance" of making top 4. 75 points would most probably allow us to sneak in.
That points simulation tells me one thing, we will need to avoid further defeats from now on. We can draw up to a total of 5 game with 8 wins and still muster 78 points. As many have said, we find ourselves still in a strong position is because we have done very well in the 1st half of the season.
In summary, I would say anything more than 70 points would give us a very god chance of ending up at top 4.
Anyone dare to think of a 13 straight wins that will give us a total 88 points and beat Chelsea to the title?
(Note : Any calculation error here, kindly point out. Maths is not one of my strongest point)