4th isn't a sure thing to CL qualification, I believe that the qualification round has changed with no seeded teams, and divided into 2 routes.
The play-off round, the final round before the group stage, is also split into the champions route and the league route. The draw for both sections will be made on August 4, with the first legs taking place on August 15 and 16 and the second legs following on August 22 and 23.
There are no new teams added to the champions route; the 10 winners from that section in the third qualifying round are drawn against each other in another five ties, with the five winners advancing to the group stage.
Five more teams are added to the league route, and join the five teams that progressed from that section in the third qualifying round. They play across 10 ties, and like the champions route the five winners advance to the group stage.
So as it stands, the other 4 teams in the League route are: Sevilla FC, Sporting of Portugal, TSG Hoffenheim & Napoli, we could be drawn against any of these, or a team from the qualification stages.
I may be wrong, but lets hope we get 3rd.
I agree that 3rd is preferred, which could still happen if City draw one of their matches and we win, as the goal difference is already close. I do not expect Arsenal to drop any points. We must win to make top 4.
But if we finish 4th - the draw for that that playoff round IS seeded. Whether we are seeded remains to be seen. It is based on club coefficient and we are 34thTo add detail to RP's post, that playoff round looks like this:
Participants: Five teams which enter in this round, and the five League Route winners of the third qualifying round. (top 5 potential seeds in bold)
5 teams from the League Route (non-champions, with current coefficient ranking)
Spain Sevilla CC: TBD (112.942) - confirmed, 8thPortugal Sporting CP CC: 36.866 - confirmed, 57th
Germany Fourth-placed team of 2016–17 Bundesliga
(Borussia Dortmund (7th) or Hoffenheim - (122nd))
Fourth-placed team of 2016–17 Premier League (that would be us, 34th)Italy Third-placed team of 2016–17 Serie A (Roma (37th) or
Napoli (17th))
And then 5 advancing from the 3rd qualifying round - out of the following 10:
Dynamo Kyiv CC: 67.526 (25th)Netherlands Ajax CC: TBD (67.212) (26th) (although they could begin at group stage if they beat Man United in the Europa final)
Romania Steaua București CC: 35.370 (60th)
Switzerland Young Boys CC: 28.915 (72nd)
France Nice CC: 16.833 (117th)
Runners-up of 2016–17 Russian Premier League (CSKA Moscow (52nd) or
Zenit St. Petersburg (19th)
Belgium Runners-up of 2016–17 Belgian First Division A (Club Brugge (53rd) or Gent (59th)
Turkey Runners-up of 2016–17 Süper Lig Besiktas (43rd) or Istanbul Besaksehir (way lower)
Czech Republic Runners-up of 2016–17 Czech First League (Slavia Prague (way lower) or Viktoria Plzen (68th)
Greece Runners-up of 2016–17 Superleague Greece (AEK, Panathinaikos, Paionos or PAOK - all are lower than us)
All that to say we are 7th highest coefficient of the teams that could be in this round, but we should be seeded with a couple of teams moving up or down in their respective league tables at the end of the season.
Obviously you'd like to avoid Dortmund, Napoli or Seville at that stage, but I don't see anyone else there who really worries me.
Wouldn't it be something if we were drawn against Nice And Balotelli?This season, Man City entered the tournament at this stage and were one of the five seeded teams,along with Porto, Villareal, Monchengladbach and Ajax. Three seeded teams won by aggregates of 6-0, 9-2 and 4-1, while Villareal lost 3-1 to unseeded Monaco, and Ajax lost 5-2 to unseeded Rostov
Seedings are based on the current club coefficient, where we stand 34th. Link here:
https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/data/method4/trank2017.html