Odds change in such a way as to guarantee the betting house makes money. When it was 2/9, to leave, more people found it a good bet that he stay, and so then those odds start to drop. Only in the rarest events does the house take a proverbial bath on a wager's outcome.
I understand odds reasonably well mate and yes to get a better than (lower) 100% over-round is rare in these markets (due to the fact that people don't often consider that it might be more than a 2 horse race) but it's also a fact that a bookmaker or odds compiler makes a judgement call both relative to other bookmakers and to the information they have at hand which is therefore reflective in the odds they make available.
For instance if you want to know what is happening with Willie Mullins horses over Cheltenham then observe the odds offered by paddypower, his horses have numerous entries but there's a reason why these will be a few points lower (in fact pretty close to on the day prices) for certain races for his horses. It's got nothing to do with the bets they're received and "getting it in the book" it's completely down to information they have that we aren't privy to. The same will happen across all sports and throughout the betting industry, it is basically legal insider trading and exactly why bookmakers figure so heavily on the FTSE 100, they are not generous, ever.
So does 11/4 look too good to be true with 48hrs or so left, damn right it does. Do I think that they've got more liabilities on him moving than they do on him staying, yes, but that doesn't mean that they need to be so far detached from the other bookmaker prices, there's basically more to it than that. Which of course is an assumption I've made but it's based on years and years of studying betting patterns and bookmakers, and granted the small volumes of trade they get in these markets do make them distinctly different from football betting and horse racing but the same rules should apply.
We'll soon find out though.
Edit: Oh look 1/8 for us and 9/2 with skybet now.. think that 11/4 was generous now?
« Last Edit: Aug 29, 2017 05:42:30 pm by KopiteLuke »
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