I could swear there was already a thread about this subject created this season, but I did a few searches and could not find any. If there is one and I'm just a terrible searcher, I apologise.
Well, the goalkeeper situation. One of the most discussed topics by Liverpool fans. No one is happy - nothing new to see here.
However, today I came across some interesting stats which I thought worth sharing. Here they go:
https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/946848173624119296How to read this: the most important column is the last one, which basically tells us if, based on the model built by the author, a goalkeeper is underperforming (below 100%), just about average (100% or thereabouts) or overperforming (significantly above 100%).
Some of you may be familiar with an increasingly popular metric called Expected Goals (expG for short). Through the analysis of significant amounts of shots data, these models assign a "expected goal" value to each shot based on parameters such as shot location (ex: the more central and closer to goal, greater the percentage of scoring) and may also include other factors, ie game state (if a team is winning, drawing or losing, and by how much), type of pass leading to the shot (a long one, a short one, a cross, etc), and many others. There are many different Expected Goals models around the internet, and each may be slightly different depending on the variables under consideration. None of them are perfect, of course, but the resulting data can generate some interesting insights.
The idea is similar for the PostShotxG stat in the table above, which can give us an idea of how a goalkeeper is faring based on the quality of the shots he has faced - if he has conceded fewer goals than what on average is scored in those situations, performed just to expectation or is really above average. As the author himself explains:
https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947101574173790208So coming back to the first tweet, what this table is showing is that, based on that specific model, the last time a Liverpool goalkeeper actually saved more shots on target than expected was 2010, and even so only by a small margin. The following two years, Reina slightly underperformed (again, by that metric), but what is even more telling is that, even in his worst years, his Save Efficiency % is still higher than that of any other LFC goalkeeper ever since.
We can also take a look at Simon Mignolet's career numbers:
https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947193082679889921And Loris Karius:
https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947210546260135938By comparison, we can take a look at truly world class goalkeepers:
https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947082520021143552https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/946685956064759808As the author himself has suggested, there are factors which the model does not explain or adjusts for - such as the fact that Mignolet most likely had more protection at a defensive minded Sunderland than at an open, attacking Liverpool, and this affects his numbers. This is why numbers like that of Neuer for an attacking Bayern side are probably even more formidable.
However, as interesting as they are, the model and the tweets above are solely concerned with shots. It has nothing to say on other aspects of a goalkeeper's performance, such as the ability to catch crosses, to do a sweeping role, to distribute the ball quickly and effectively, among others - some of which are of increasing importance in today's game, and also in how Liverpool FC plays.
In pretty much all of those, Pepe Reina was also vastly superior to his successors (from my own observations, not that of any particular model). Personally, what I find most mystifying is why a manager like Brendan Rodgers, who was always insistent on the need to build from the back, and demanded a sort of technical quality from his defenders that many other managers don't, switched a natural "sweeper keeper" such as Reina for one so inept with the ball on his feet, and so brutally indecisive with the ball in his hands that he constantly slows play down like Mignolet. I really cannot remember any other keeper to have been punished by that 6 seconds rule, and he wasn't even trying to waste time!
One could also argue that a similar logic applies to Klopp, who likes his players to be comfortable on the ball and be fast and precise in transitions. Simon Mignolet and "heavy metal football" could not be further apart.
This situation seriously needs sorting, and very soon. Let us not forget that Karius, despite being relatively young, was brought to the club expected to be first choice. He was given the number 1 shirt on arrival and started the first few games of the 16/17 season. It was only due to his poor performances that he later became confined to the bench. This suggests to me that Klopp has identified the need to upgrade on Mignolet quite a while ago, but as things have not turned out as he expected, he's since refused to look for solutions in the transfer market again.
For me, I feel like the boss has either to stick with Karius and give him a chance to prove himself until the end of the season, or look to purchase a new goalkeeper as soon as possible. Mignolet has been long enough at the club to show he's not a good fit for us - both as a shot stopper and in terms of style of play. Watching his kicks live from the stadium probably reduced my life expectancy by a few days, weeks or months.
If we have the funds to spend heavily, there are very few keepers (if any) that we could reasonably expect to attract who are better than this man:
https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/946687832084697088Oblak is only 24 years old (soon to be 25) and could own the position for many years to come.
But there are also other quality goalkeepers out there. One of my personal favourites is Alisson - he's been getting better and better lately, and more comfortable on the ball.
https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947189661037887488Or if JĂŒrgen would like to consider another German GK:
https://twitter.com/colintrainor/status/947222738044891142Plus, there are other interesting goalkeepers out there which this guy hasn't posted any data about, but which I believe would also be an upgrade on what we currently have, such as Pavlenka (Werder Bremen), Strakosha (Lazio), etc. We have just addressed one major issue in central defence; let's now please address a longstanding issue between the sticks.
TL;DR version: please make Mignolet history.