Great OP, Diego. I'm going to try and write my thoughts down as organised as possible, haha. There's so much I want to say. I don't really know where to start.
First off, the goalkeeper position is probably the hardest to put down in numbers. There's so many variables to the numbers that they never really tell the full story. For example the saves / goal ratio is probably one of the silliest statistics to judge a goalkeeper on in my opinion.
I'm familiar with the xG metric and I recently read some statistics about the goalkeepers so far in the PL, using the xG metric combined with a few other ones. Surprisingly enough, quite a few goalkeepers who people would like to see Mignolet replaced with, are all performing worse than Mignolet this season. Schmeichel, Butland, Hart and Pickford (not entirely sure) were all below Mignolet. No coincidence seeing as the four of them have conceded quite a few goals so far this season. That same spreadsheet had De Gea and Pope as top performers so far this season, so checks out.
Some interesting numbers there and I have a few questions and thoughts on them. De Gea, Oblak, Pope. All three of them have stellar statistics this season (in the case of DDG and JO multiple seasons). All three of the teams these goalkeepers play for, play a pretty defensive style of football. We've seen the effect on the statistics when teams protect their goalkeepers (Compare Mignolet at Sunderland to Mignolet at Liverpool). All three of them face (not sure on Oblak) high volumes of shots. Does the metric take an average xG of each shot to goals conceded or does it add up all xG of the shots to goals conceded. If it's the latter, that explains some of the numbers they are putting up. I don't rate Pope at all, but he makes a lot of saves and that kind of messes up his numbers. The only exception here is Neuer, of who we would all agree was (pre-injury) the best goalkeeper in the world?
Example this season: De Gea vs Arsenal. A massive 15 saves. I watched a compilation of all of them. How many do you think were gamechanging saves? In my opinion, only 3 (which is still very good) out of 15. The rest of the saves were from a big distance or difficult angles to score from. Yet he did make 15 saves (adding up all the xG) and conceded only 1 goal, so his numbers would be amazing, even though he really only made three big saves. I'm not denying that De Gea is arguably one of the best, if not the best goalkeeper(s) around. Just to show how big volumes of saves mess up the stats, even when you take into account the xG of every shot.
It's the same story for Pope. Burnley fill up the middle of the pitch and their players put in a lot of tackles / blocks from angled shots. They allow opposition to take low % shots from outside the box or from difficult angles (look at our game there last season). Both categories of shots are relatively easy to save. Result is that Pope has a high amount of saves, a high save / xG and few goals conceded. Put Pope in goal for Arsenal, City or us and watch his numbers fall down, he's an average goalkeeper, just like Heaton, who is given a lot of protection and faces high volumes of low % shots. On the rare occasion teams do slice through the Burnley defence (City and Spurs more recently), he barely saves any of the high % shots / big chances.
Oblak is also a phenomenal goalkeeper. Yet he is also given a lot of protection in the way that Atletico play. It would be very interesting to see his numbers for Czech Republic compared to his numbers for Atletico Madrid. Are they about the same? Or would we see a big drop in his %'s because he is playing with less protection / for a weaker team?
I like Karius' numbers from Mainz. Open league, open style of play in a midtable team, still putting up good numbers. I still think he can be our longterm #1 if given the chance. You say he was given the number 1 shirt on arrival and started the first few games of the 16/17 season and it was only due to his poor performances that he later became confined to the bench. That's not entirely true though?
He came in in pre-season and looked pretty good. He was indeed given the #1 jersey and probably would've started the season, had it not been for a broken hand and Mignolet starting the season. First chance Klopp had, he put Karius in goal over Mignolet. Then he had a decent run right op until that Bournemouth game where the public opinion forced Klopp's hand and there was no other option than taking him out. This season he's playing high profile (not the best opposition) games in the Champion's League and Klopp is playing him in the league at every single opportunity and playing it off as "rotation", something he (to my knowledge) never did at Dortmund. Either he changed his mind about goalkeeper rotation or he's trying to give Karius as many minutes as possible without completely shutting out Mignolet and going back on the agreement they had this summer.
People say he doesn't trust him? I say he does and is protecting him. Other than the Spartak freekick he hasn't disappointed at all and it's clear what he can offer us in terms of his strenghts. Not saying there's not better out there right now, but I can see him be our #1 next season.
As for Mignolet, put him in that Burnley side and he'll put up some nice numbers too, just like he did at Sunderland.
« Last Edit: Jan 02, 2018 01:35:43 am by Danzel »
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