For me it is Mignolet's inability to command his box that should be his ultimate downfall. He strikes no fear into the opposition and I'm sure an unbiased model would show half of the goals we concede late are from crosses or lobs into the box that a keeper should claim 99.9% of the time. Let alone we need more of sweeper keeper, and I would trust Jimmy Traore to do this better than Migs, and Jimmy ' just can't control his feet'.
Models about shots form positions that should be saved tell us something. However, I think penetrating Man Utd's defence which is 4 feet from goal, or Bayern's defence probably means the personnel doing it is under more pressure, or is probably not the well marshalled striker but a midfielder etc. so there may be a big chunk of analysis missing. However, good post.
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