If Managers get things wrong half the time, just how many times do you think dunderheads that post on forums would get them wrong?
You're completely right! I agree 100% that if managers, having all the videos and scouting reports etc, STILL get them wrong, then we the "commoners" who are presumably even less informed have even less to go on.
But does that mean we aren't allowed to question them at all?
I don't remember who it is but I think there is some poster here from Greece, so let's say he supports his local club, whatever it is, and he goes to their matches a lot and knows their players inside and out. Let's say we're interested in a player from that club. Well presumably our scouts may go and see the player once or twice or maybe even three times, and watch some video highlights, talk to the manager etc, but that poster may know a great deal as well from having seen the player up close on a frequent basis.
So maybe we want to sign him but the poster says "Oh man, I have seen him, he is very pacy and tricky but he goes missing a lot and doesn't track back...." etc etc. Maybe the scouts picked up on this having watched a few games, or maybe they didn't, because the player was told "there are scouts from Liverpool in the stand tonight" and he upped his game.
I mean my point is it's all very complicated, figuring out the right combination to get the right player, and surely some posters have something relevant to contribute to the discussion and are totally fair in suggesting that a player might not be a good buy.
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