I cant believe there is people here accusing others of being naive because they dont think the draw was fixed! JD said there was something like 136 possible combinations, I heard a similar figure so lets assume its correct because I cant be bothered doing the maths! think of all the predictions that had been made, even on this site alone there was loads, with probably thousands of people making predictions on various forums its bound to happen that at least one person makes the lucky guess and gets it right. if the draw had been different, someone else would have got it right. people are a bit too paranoid about this sort of thing!
Well I gave it a try with the calculation and got 105 combinations (and I study math so it would be embarassing if its wrong
).
The hot/cold-theory (4 cold, 4 warm) still leaves 24 combinations so that wouldnt give you exact results anyway, so I dont buy that theory.
And isnt it normally some legend footballer who pics the balls? They are rarely street magicians in their spare time are they?
Well, if the chances are that you get the right combination almost every 100th try, then spread a couple of roumors of the draw of any big quater-final draw (CL, UEFA-cup, FA-cup, World Cup) and within a couple of years you will quite probably have guessed the right one (chances that you get the right guess before try number 100 are quite good. The average number of times you would have to guess is around 50).
I can see that UEFA could have a motivation for fixing it (more entertaining games, better semis and final, more television viewers) but looking at how the draw is made, it seems too difficult and too big a chance to take, compared to the benefit, since quater finals are so unprdictable anyway.
So I agree with sharnerB, someone had a lucky guess.
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