Potential vs Proven

Ok, this might be a bit obvious to some, most perhaps, but bear with me

We sign a lot of young potential talent because it seems to be FSG and the Gaffer's Modus Operandi. Great if it works (Couts £8m?), disaster if not (Markovic £20m?). FSG we think, do this for long term gains on the pitch, and/or shorter term financial gain if/when they are to be sold. Question I asked is have they gotten it all backward?

I think the way to go is to buy proven older players for two reasons

1. They are proven (obvious)
2. They stay at your club

The second one is massive and only just hit me (I'm a slow learner ). Sure a proven player is going to cost more money and wages, but, let's say you buy a proven player at the age of 26, maybe even 27.  I used to think, ok, but you've just spent £40m on a player that's going to be 30 in 4 or even 3 years time! That's not planning for the future! Then I though screw the future - your youth academy takes care of that. Plan for the present, get the players in, win a bunch of stuff, recoup that money spent, and everyone is happy.

The real eye opener for me was when I thought, imagine us going out and paying say, £65m for a 27 year old. Times past I'd have choked in disbelief; that's a lot of money for one player who is 30 in 3 years time! Until I realised that's exactly what happened to us with Suarez and Barca

Imagine us buying Suarez, this season for £75m, knowing what he'd done over the last 3 seasons. Kwality! He signs a 3 or 4 year contract and is with us until he's 30 or 31, at which time he's now thinking of spending his twilight years for Boca Juniors or whichever team is his hometown. And thanks for the best years of your career.

I remember when the scum bought 28 or 29 year old Van Persie for £26m and laughed - right up until I thought 'Balls! He just won them their 20th title'. And even though we beat AC Milan in Istanbul, wasn't that a classy side with most players over 30? Didn't we sign Dalglish at 26 and Barnes at 24? Ok, not a pup, but old enough to have proven he was proven.

Sure you look around for potential (Origi has potential), but I believe, with the big Spanish clubs, any 'real' potential, like Messi and Neymar, are going to be snapped up long before we get a sniff. For the most part. So for me, we have to start buying proven players because they're proven and they stay at your club. Or if they are sold, they are sold at the age when you'd start looking for replacements anyway! Hindsight, but, do you want Markovic (sorry - I know he didn't demand that amount) for £20m or Lampard (assuming he'd come) for nothing? Proven is proven. Proven should be supplemented with potential and not potential supplemented with more potential.

Let's put a bit in for Ibrahimovic in January. £35m should get him (only half joking). Not to be taken literally but the gist is we should now start looking to buy quality proven older players instead of potential youth.

You need a certain amount of experienced players in a team Rush and we clearly don't have enough of them.

You need a certain amount of experienced players in a team Rush and we clearly don't have enough of them.

Si, that's down to the manager getting rid of experienced players & taking a risk with inexperienced players but flip the coin,  Lallanna,Ballotelli,Lambert,Lovren,Mignolet all have experience in the PL so there should be no excuses.

I would rather always go for quality than quantity, a world class defender,Midfielder & striker would transfer our fortunes without a doubt.

Si, that's down to the manager getting rid of experienced players & taking a risk with inexperienced players but flip the coin,  Lallanna,Ballotelli,Lambert,Lovren,Mignolet all have experience in the PL so there should be no excuses.

I would rather always go for quality than quantity, a world class defender,Midfielder & striker would transfer our fortunes without a doubt.

Which prompts the question 'why is the manager of LFC doing an impression of a mid-table club and not picking the prime cuts'?
The only reason the expensive deals are ignored is through reasons of finance. BR has no say in the financial matters of the club. 

I remember when the scum bought 28 or 29 year old Van Persie for £26m and laughed - right up until I thought 'Balls! He just won them their 20th title'.

 

This.

To be honest it doesn't matter, it comes down to quality.

Glen Johnson was a proven player when we bought him for 17 million quid, Glen Johnson is still a proven player and yet he's still F***ing sh*te like he has been for his entire Liverpool career. We've let potential players like Kelly and Wisdom go this year in order to keep Johnson.

We bought a, so called, proven player in both Balotelli and Lambert. Start of November and neither of them have a Premier League goal. A potential player at West Brom called Berahino has already netted 7 League goals.

Some proven players work, some potential players work. Alternatively some proven players don't work out, some potential players don't. But the only way the potential players do become proven is by giving them a go.

To be honest it doesn't matter, it comes down to quality.

Glen Johnson was a proven player when we bought him for 17 million quid, Glen Johnson is still a proven player and yet he's still F***ing sh*te like he has been for his entire Liverpool career. We've let potential players like Kelly and Wisdom go this year in order to keep Johnson.

We bought a, so called, proven player in both Balotelli and Lambert. Start of November and neither of them have a Premier League goal. A potential player at West Brom called Berahino has already netted 7 League goals.

Some proven players work, some potential players work. Alternatively some proven players don't work out, some potential players don't. But the only way the potential players do become proven is by giving them a go.

Well said Billy.  Every signing is a gamble.

Didn't Stephen Gerrard say something about this recently then said oh it's the clubs philosophy at the mo. The attitude at the clubs top tier is fu**ed up, we should be getting the best when they are at their best and using them for any years they are at that top level for.
Whether it be 2 years, 4 or whatever.
I feel like I'm supporting the equivalent of the Nike swoosh or adidas three stripes sometimes these days.
A brand, a business model wtf? This is my football club what I've loved since I was 3 not the F***ing ASDA.
I get paid to name drop btw.

For me Lambert was proven, but proven mediocrity

Johnson was proven, a proven right back who was better at going forward than defending

Lovren was a proven mediocre defender

I agree with what you're saying DLS. You obviously need to have a certain tactical nous about who you buy in the transfer market. But even more so with young potential.

Let's face it, Johnson was a great buy for two season possibly three, but went downhill. Still, he was quality at first. That's two to three seasons of a top world class international defender as opposed to a Manquillo, or a Moreno who might be class in years to come.

Well said Billy.  Every signing is a gamble.

But some (young potential) more than others (proven)

When I say proven, I mean proven quality. Players who we know are good solid players, because we've watched them year after year. Even world class players. Players who will cost you more, true, but when you figure in the wages of the young potentials (and there may be 3 or 4 of them in a batch) that will go up and up and for a good few years until we release they can't cut it, I think it's worth it. Less of a gamble. After all, you can't get away from the fact that today, success costs money

Ok I'm no businessman, I have no idea of the internal workings, but on the surface, I think it's well worth it (perhaps someone could check my calculations)

Let's say you have 4 young potentials are earning £60k a week, over 4 years. That's

£49.92m in wages.

Then there's that 1 proven player on say, £300k a week, over 4 years. That's £62.4m in wages.

Both types of players will see their wages rise each season, but for the sake of brevity and sanity (with 4 potential player wages rising against the 1 proven player's wages rising) we'll say it cancels out.

The differences is £12.48m, or, £3.12m a year. A figure that is easily recouped with one ECL

qualification. Let alone TV rights, sponsorship deals etc.

Well said Billy.  Every signing is a gamble.

Aye, I agree with that love but unfortunately Brendan's record in the transfer market is more gambles failing than succeeding. And that's with both proven and potential.

For me Lambert was proven, but proven mediocrity

Johnson was proven, a proven right back who was better at going forward than defending

Lovren was a proven mediocre defender

I agree with what you're saying DLS. You obviously need to have a certain tactical nous about who you buy in the transfer market. But even more so with young potential.

Let's face it, Johnson was a great buy for two season possibly three, but went downhill. Still, he was quality at first. That's two to three seasons of a top world class international defender as opposed to a Manquillo, or a Moreno who might be class in years to come.

We obviously have a huge difference of opinion in what is a world class defender because since the day Johnson signed, he's been sh*t in my opinion. Vastly overrated by our fans. And a complete downgrade on Arbeloa who he replaced.

I agree with the tactical nous being needed, maybe with more youngsters but our record over the past decade or two when signing proven players hasn't exactly shone either. Our last ten years of transfers has seen this; (I'll mark in bold the ones I consider a hit and I haven't put kids like Barragan, Ibe, Ilori in as they haven't had any chances to prove their worth)

04/05 - Cisse, Josemi, Nunez, Alonso, Garcia, Carson, Morientes and Pelligrino.
05/06 - Reina, Sissoko, Zenden, Crouch, Gonzalez, Fowler, Kromkamp, Agger
06/07 - Kuyt, Bellamy, Aurelio Pennant, Arbeloa, Mascherano, Paletta
07/08 - Torres, Lucas, Voronin, Benayoun, Babel, Itandje, Insua, Skrtel
08/09 - Degen, Keane, Riera, Ngog, Dossena
09/10 - Sterling, Maxi, Kyrgiakos, Johnson, Aquilani
10/11 - Cole, Wilson, Jovanovic, Poulsen, Meireles, Jones, Shelvey, Konchesky, Suarez, Carroll
11/12 - Henderson, Adam, Coates, Bellamy, Enrique, Downing
12/13 - Allen, Assaidi, Borini, Sahin, Sturridge, Coutinho
13/14 - Aspas, Alberto, Toure, Mignolet, Sakho, Moses, Cissokho
14/15 - Markovic, Lallana, Lambert, Balotelli, Lovren, Manquillo, Moreno, Can.

That's 10 years of a blend of proven and potential and by and large our transfers have been shocking. Even if people wanna claim players like Sissoko and Lucas as successes, it doesn't make great reading. There's been something wrong with our transfer dealings for too long.

I have always believed that you build your team with quality players and then you supplement it by adding even better players and prospects. You don't try to build your team WITH prospects or you are always waiting for some of them to mature and never reaching the stage where you are winning titles.

Much easier to integrate one or two quality prospects into an already strong and successful team than trying to integrate 4 or 5 prospects into a team that is still developing or struggling.



 

Let's face it, Johnson was a great buy for two season possibly three, but went downhill. Still, he was quality at first. That's two to three seasons of a top world class international defender as opposed to a Manquillo, or a Moreno who might be class in years to come.

So we paid top dollar in both fee and wages for Johnson, who had 2 or 3 good seasons where we won nothing but because he was proven when we bought him, it's ok to have to pay top dollar for him for another 3 seasons to be sh*t, yet you won't give the young players with potential 2 or 3 months to show what they can do.  Imagine if we sold them this summer and in a couple of years time they're even better than Glen was at his peak, we'd all be kicking ourselves.

But some (young potential) more than others (proven)

When I say proven, I mean proven quality. Players who we know are good solid players, because we've watched them year after year. Even world class players. Players who will cost you more, true, but when you figure in the wages of the young potentials (and there may be 3 or 4 of them in a batch) that will go up and up and for a good few years until we release they can't cut it, I think it's worth it. Less of a gamble. After all, you can't get away from the fact that today, success costs money

I'm not sure how much you think our young lads are on or how much proven players demand when they change clubs.

The likes of Can and Markovic are probably on about £30k, Manquillo maybe £20k, that's 3 players who can improve for less than (a god awful for 2 seasons) Glen Johnson.

I know you don't mean we should buy past it players but that example is why our owners won't buy proven quality players.  You might get a couple of good seasons out of them, win nothing despite them costing a fortune, then you can't get rid of them and have to pay them even more to see their contract out.

They've said it enough times over the years, I can't see them changing their minds, even though it's obvious to us.

Ok I'm no businessman, I have no idea of the internal workings, but on the surface, I think it's well worth it (perhaps someone could check my calculations)

Let's say you have 4 young potentials are earning £60k a week, over 4 years. That's

£49.92m in wages.

Then there's that 1 proven player on say, £300k a week, over 4 years. That's £62.4m in wages.

Both types of players will see their wages rise each season, but for the sake of brevity and sanity (with 4 potential player wages rising against the 1 proven player's wages rising) we'll say it cancels out.

The differences is £12.48m, or, £3.12m a year. A figure that is easily recouped with one ECL

qualification. Let alone TV rights, sponsorship deals etc.

Doesn't work like that mate.  The figures for the young players is way out of line, probably half your estimates out of line so that's skewed the calculations.  Plus the young players won't get improved contracts each year.  If they are playing regularly and contributing like Cou, Hendo, Flanno, Danny and Raheem did last season their contract will be looked at after 2 or 3 years like all the players mentioned have.  If they aren't living up to the hype, they'll be sold and the next big thing will be bought or an Academy graduate will come in.

Our transfer policy is too rigid. We're two focused on our philosophy of buying young talented players (for inflated fees some might say) developing those players and looking to sell for a mark up in a few years.

They do this because the wages are minimal, if they do not succeed then you can still get some resale value and in some cases the player can out perform all expectations.

I agree we need to follow that ideology because we can't buy world class players every time to purchase a player.

However we need to be more flexible. There's needs to be a way that in certain circumstances, we can enter the transfer market and sign a player of the highest quality.

We sold Suarez, we needed to replace him with a player of similar quality. Forget all this bullshit about quantity excuses. We needed quantity whether or not Suarez stayed or not.

During the summer many people were saying "well we've definitely improved the squad, but the team isn't as strong" and that's why we should have signed a top quality replacement for Suarez.

We failed to acquire Sanchez (who's already hit 10 goals this season) and then from what I can see, we just ran out of ideas, made a couple of inquires for Falcao and gave up on him because we were too scared to compete with other clubs for him (a player who ended up at United with CL football ffs)

And with us panicking with a couple of weeks to go we signed Balotelli, all because he was available for a reasonable price, and that we made half hearted attempts at signing other players.

I think John Henry commented when he first came here buying players with no sell on value was madness and I tend in principal to agree with him. Bringing sanity to a madhouse is great but your still in a mad house and that's football its a madhouse with little logic to it.
Surely all players with potential HAVE to come form the academy and we should only buy proven players who have performed at the highest level. The only exception would be buying a player from a lower league club and developing him.

To be honest it doesn't matter, it comes down to quality.

I thought it was painfully obvious Rush was talking about proven quality to be honest. 

So we paid top dollar in both fee and wages for Johnson, who had 2 or 3 good seasons where we won nothing but because he was proven when we bought him, it's ok to have to pay top dollar for him for another 3 seasons to be sh*t

I never said that it is ok to keep paying him whilst he is sh*te. We should have gotten rid two or three seasons ago. But that's another topic.

, yet you won't give the young players with potential 2 or 3 months to show what they can do.

I have never said we shouldn't give potential a chance. I said we should consider getting proven quality and supplement with youthful promise.

  Imagine if we sold them this summer and in a couple of years time they're even better than Glen was at his peak, we'd all be kicking ourselves.

Hypothetical statement though debs. They may become world beaters or they may not. We don't know so can't comment. Though going by what I've see, the potential we have sold on or are on loan (Ibe, Kelly, Wisdom, Alberto, Robinson, Spearing, Shelvey, Adam Morgan, Babbel, Ngog), don't seem to be doing any better than they did here. That list is longer than I care or can remember too

I'm not sure how much you think our young lads are on or how much proven players demand when they change clubs.

The likes of Can and Markovic are probably on about £30k, Manquillo maybe £20k, that's 3 players who can improve for less than (a god awful for 2 seasons) Glen Johnson.

Can improve into proven. I'm saying let's not keep wasting money on potential and put a few proven in there. I can say Mkhitaryan or Hummels can and could do this and that (and probably would because they are proven). And to reiterate, I've never said I don't want to give young potential a chance. I am saying we need to buy proven and supplement with potential. Not buy potential and supplement with potential like we have done for the majority of it all. You can check my figures in my other post for what I think wage could be.

I know you don't mean we should buy past it players but that example is why our owners won't buy proven quality players.  You might get a couple of good seasons out of them, win nothing despite them costing a fortune, then you can't get rid of them and have to pay them even more to see their contract out.

But chances are when you buy proven quality, you will get a good return. I'm not say we 'will'. They may turn out real duffers, that's very true. But hear is my point; we've tried potential upon potential upon potential for season after season and it's not worked out that well at all debs. Studge and Couts apart and I have reservations over Couts, it's not been that profitable.

They've said it enough times over the years, I can't see them changing their minds, even though it's obvious to us.

Agreed.

I just think it's time for change in our transfer policy. I think most of us do to be fari

People need to F**k off thinking we're only going for "youngsters who we can sell at a profit later on" (although that was the benchmark for some of Rafa's signings - as long as we got a profit on them, they were a good transfer. Now it doesn't work that way? And in Rafa's day it was always "net spend" when people questioned the hundreds of millions he threw away on sh*t, for Brendan though it's "he's spent 100 mill on sh*t, forget the 80 million we got back in transfers in the summer)

Lambert 32.
Lallana 26.
Lovren 25.
Balotelli 24.

These are not kids. And if we make a profit on any of them I'd be amazed.

We have gone out and bought both potential and proven and on both sides there's been very few successes.

I thought it was painfully obvious Rush was talking about proven quality to be honest. 

Perhaps.

But as I said, Johnson was supposedly proven quality and has been sh*t. Same with Robbie Keane, Stewart Downing, Dejan Lovren and Mario Balotelli. Close to 100 million on proven quality who are actually overrated sh*t.

We have gone out and bought both potential and proven and on both sides there's been very few successes.

Spot on mate. Doesn't matter about potential or proven, every year any progress we make on the pitch is ruined the following summer when our rivals make quality signings and we make sh*te ones. Happened under Rafa, happened under Kenny and it's happening now under Brendan.

I never said that it is ok to keep paying him whilst he is sh*te. We should have gotten rid two or three seasons ago. But that's another topic.
I have never said we shouldn't give potential a chance. I said we should consider getting proven quality and supplement with youthful promise.
Hypothetical statement though debs. They may become world beaters or they may not. We don't know so can't comment. Though going by what I've see, the potential we have sold on or are on loan (Ibe, Kelly, Wisdom, Alberto, Robinson, Spearing, Shelvey, Adam Morgan, Babbel, Ngog), don't seem to be doing any better than they did here. That list is longer than I care or can remember too
Can improve into proven. I'm saying let's not keep wasting money on potential and put a few proven in there. I can say Mkhitaryan or Hummels can and could do this and that (and probably would because they are proven). And to reiterate, I've never said I don't want to give young potential a chance. I am saying we need to buy proven and supplement with potential. Not buy potential and supplement with potential like we have done for the majority of it all. You can check my figures in my other post for what I think wage could be.
But chances are when you buy proven quality, you will get a good return. I'm not say we 'will'. They may turn out real duffers, that's very true. But hear is my point; we've tried potential upon potential upon potential for season after season and it's not worked out that well at all debs. Studge and Couts apart and I have reservations over Couts, it's not been that profitable.
Agreed.

I just think it's time for change in our transfer policy. I think most of us do to be fari

As Billy has said, we have bought proven it's the quality we're lacking but we won't pay for the type of quality that the fans want or that the team needs.  We just have to hope that those players we have got become that quality but it won't happen overnight.

Proven quality. That's all I'm saying, and yes, I did think it was obvious I was on about spending the extra for proven quality

Lovren is not proven quality - he is a mid table defender who had a decent season with Soton
Balotelli is not proven quality - he is doing exactly what he did at City; slump, slink, and walk about
Lambert is not proven quality - at all, 13 goals and 15 goals for Soton is not proven quality
Lallana is bordering on proven quality - cost £26m and I think he's a solid buy
Markovic is not proven quality - not sure what he is right now
Moreno is not proven quality - and has been very hit and miss so far
Manquillo is not proven quality - and has been very hit and miss as well
Origi is not proven quality - but seems to be genuine potential
Can is not proven quality - of them all I think he's still settling in what with injuries and all that
Couts was not proven quality  - but it has paid off more or less, he can be a bit off on times
Studge was not proven quality - but, apart from injuries, he is
Allen was not proven quality - and probably won't be for what we need
Borini was not proven quality - much as I love his work rate and ethic
Alberto was not proven quality - though never had much of a chance
Assaidi was not proven quality - see above
Aspas was not proven quality - and again never really go the chance. Well, not much

There's probably a few more

Robbie Keane was proven quality - but never got the chance to prove that

With all respect DLS, my post was not about buying youngsters for profit, though that is an option for FSG no matter what we think.

All I said is that I think we need to start buying proven players and by proven I mean quality.